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The Timber Finance Tracker initially performed with relative stability and volatility, reaching a yearly high of around CHF 110. However, like many other assets, it came under increasing pressure toward the end of 2024, stabilizing at approximately CHF 90. On “Black Monday,” April 7, 2025, the announcement of Trump-style tariffs triggered a further 14% drop, pushing the Tracker to a historic low of around CHF 79.
The development leading up to “Black Monday” reflects the overall challenging state of the construction sector. In Europe, the ongoing “housing crisis” has resulted in a sharp decline in building permits and a structural shortage of hundreds of thousands of housing units. [1] According to Statista, Germany alone is expected to face a shortage of more than 830,000 housing units by 2027, with the housing crisis continuing to intensify. [2] Across Europe, the number of housing units needed likely reaches into the millions—homes that must be built quickly, sustainably, and affordably. A promising outlook for timber construction. At the same time, the construction sector in the United States also saw a noticeable slowdown. [3] Additional pressure came from currency losses of the Swiss franc against the US dollar, further weighing on overall performance. [4]
On a positive note, the Tracker proved more resilient than pure residential construction thanks to its broader diversification. At the same time, a decoupling emerged between timber construction stocks and conventional construction stocks: while timber construction moved sideways from late autumn onward, civil engineering and infrastructure sectors clearly benefited from government investment programs starting in early 2025. [5]
For investors, this means patience is key. Once the building construction sector recovers—driven by the urgent need for millions of new housing units—timber construction is likely to benefit disproportionately due to its rapid build times. [6] The historically low price level in spring 2025 may represent an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
It is worth emphasizing once again that the timber construction industry is the only publicly traded sector whose products generate so-called negative emissions—removing CO₂ from the atmosphere through forests and storing it long term in buildings. No other industry can make that claim. That’s why timber construction stocks deserve a place in any portfolio focused on decarbonization.
[1] https://timberfinance.ch/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Holzkurier_Europas_Wohnbaukrise.pdf
[3] https://timberfinance.ch/baukonjunktur-usa-europa/
[4] https://timberfinance.ch/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/20241114-Holzkurier_Ergebnisse_Q3_2024.pdf
[5] https://timberfinance.ch/baukonjunktur-usa-europa/
[6] https://timberfinance.ch/holzbauaktien-rueckblick-2024-und-potenzial-2025-fuer-die-branche/